Have you heard of the term "Demographic-Economy Paradox"? If not, you are not the only one. I just knew this not long ago. The concept is pretty eye-openner and should be the focus of many developed nations in the years to come.
Many nations set their success based on their GDP growth and per-capita income. More developing countries are catching up with consistent above 6% GDP growth. Brazil, China, India and Russia are few nations on the high-speed growth in past decade.
So what does it have to do with demographic paradox? Well, the answer is simple. The more developed a nation is, the less tendency for working professionals to think about having more children. The more developed a nation is, the more educated the people is. They will be more cautious in their spending as well. Now, with less babies, the TFR (Total Fertility Rate) drops. This can be very damaging to replace the old workers.
A nation like Singapore is a good example. The TFR is ~1.2, which is lower than target of 2.1. With old workers now start to be in their retirement age, TFR of 1.2 can be a huge problem in ensuring proper replacement of working adults.
Worse case happens in China where they implement one-baby/child policy. This confirms of maximum TFR of 1. China can be in the turning point of slowing growth in the near terms if they are not doing anything to improve this.
Based on my rough analysis, low TFR due to high growth happens only in Asia for most of the time. Asian seems very aggressive in catching up with super-power nations from West. They can even sacrifice their family for their career. Asian has been super fast in building up their economy for the past decades, but if not controlled or balanced, rather, the turning point is just right around the corner.
Economist needs to integrate the knowlege of economy growth with the demographic mapping.
Regards,
Pungky
Many nations set their success based on their GDP growth and per-capita income. More developing countries are catching up with consistent above 6% GDP growth. Brazil, China, India and Russia are few nations on the high-speed growth in past decade.
So what does it have to do with demographic paradox? Well, the answer is simple. The more developed a nation is, the less tendency for working professionals to think about having more children. The more developed a nation is, the more educated the people is. They will be more cautious in their spending as well. Now, with less babies, the TFR (Total Fertility Rate) drops. This can be very damaging to replace the old workers.
A nation like Singapore is a good example. The TFR is ~1.2, which is lower than target of 2.1. With old workers now start to be in their retirement age, TFR of 1.2 can be a huge problem in ensuring proper replacement of working adults.
Worse case happens in China where they implement one-baby/child policy. This confirms of maximum TFR of 1. China can be in the turning point of slowing growth in the near terms if they are not doing anything to improve this.
Based on my rough analysis, low TFR due to high growth happens only in Asia for most of the time. Asian seems very aggressive in catching up with super-power nations from West. They can even sacrifice their family for their career. Asian has been super fast in building up their economy for the past decades, but if not controlled or balanced, rather, the turning point is just right around the corner.
Economist needs to integrate the knowlege of economy growth with the demographic mapping.
Regards,
Pungky
